I recently read a great article on BNET from Jim Motavalli that covers a negative view of the success of EVs. I think it's great to read and consider the dissenting opinion as it helps those of us trying to make EVs succeed...besides, no one
really knows what will happen...we just have educated guesses. You can read Jim's article below...and make sure to check out the linked article.
I ultimately think EVs will take over most of the light duty vehicles because of their efficiency (esp. less waste due to heat), fuel prices (only going up), and their
superior management of energy (regen braking, idle). Batteries are just on Version 1 and they will get better due to the immense amount of R&D they are getting and the ultimate upside potential of the killer chemistry.
An announcement that gave me LOTS of hope about EVs was the Nissan Leaf's price...and the assumptions that they were able to get the price of their battery pack to less than $400/KWH big bright spot on EVs biggest announcement. Previously, the conventional wisdom was that new generation Lithium Ion EV batteries were going to cost $900/KWH+. The fact that Nissan/NEC has figured out how to make their
Lithium Ion Spinel batteries this cheap is a huge accomplishment and stake in the ground for EV batteries.
I think the EVs growth is tied to gas prices...the more they go up, the more EVs will be sold. For each event that causes petroleum prices to spike (hurricanes, wars, spills, mid-east troubles, etc.), we'll see short term growth spurts like we saw with Prius adoption in the 2000s. I graphed this relationship back in September 09:
http://www.pluginrecharge.com/2009/09/gas-prices-key-incentive-to-go-electric.html
There has been some false starts with EVs, but I think the battery technology is finally good enough so that drivers don't have to give up much to switch.